Friday, September 29, 2006

NFL Picks - Week 4

First of all, let’s get the weekly dose of Terrell Owens news out of the way. Suffice it to say there is nothing this guy does which surprises me anymore. An attention starved manchild who constantly tears down others while feeling above criticism? Big deal. Honestly, it would not surprise me one iota to hear that he A.) Donated $2 million to charity, or B.) Stabbed Bill Parcells in the heart with a grapefruit knife. Both would be consistent with his famewhoring personality. The less said about this guy, the better.

On to the picks. Remember last week, when I said I had very little confidence in my selections? Turns out I was right, as I stumbled to a 6-8 week, and I ony achievd that with some last minute wins by Miami and Carolina. This week, I’m feeling much better about the matchups, and should surge back to the top with these gems:

KANSAS CITY over San Francisco
Chiefs use bye week to help get backup QB Damon Huard acclimated to the first team offense, while the surprisingly tough defense gets a big week in front of the Arrowhead crowd. KC can forget any thoughts of the post-season with a loss here.

Miami over HOUSTON
Dolphins have inspired zero confidence to pick them on the road, but Texans are beyond awful. Daunte Culpepper needs a big game, and gets it here, though it would not be at all surprising to see a 16-10 game.

Dallas over TENNESSEE
Despite the saga this week over He Who Shall Not Be Named, the ‘Boys are too good to look beyond this one. Titans will stick with Kerry Collins, but I think you’ll be seeing Vince Young doing mop-up duty late in this one.

Indianapolis over N.Y. JETS
Despite lack of a consistent running game, Colts are too tough to falter here. Mangini has the Jets believing they’re about to turn the corner, and they could very well stay close (or make it respectable).

Minnesota over BUFFALO
Bills made a ton of mistakes last week in the red Zone, and it cost them at home vs. Jets. Vikes come off tough home loss to Bears, but have been in tight games every week so far, and should be able to get it done in Buffalo.

San Diego over BALTIMORE
Ravens perhaps exposed last week in last second win over Browns, and haven’t seen any team this good thus far. Bolts are rested coming off bye and should be able to match the Raven D stop for stop. Long as Philip Rivers stays upright, San Diego should have enough to grab this one.

CAROLINA over New Orleans
Panthers picked up critical W last week, stay at home to battle surprisingly unbeaten Saints. New Orleans has to have a letdown after emotional Monday nighter. Throw in the short week and and extra week of practice for Carolina WR Steve Smith, and you’ve got the ingredients for a Panther win.

ATLANTA over Arizona
Falcs looked shocked from the get-go on Monday, and a Swiss cheese Cardinal defense is just what the Doctor ordered. Look for Matt Leinhart to get some garbage time, just like Vince Young, as Atlanta rebounds with an easy win.

ST. LOUIS over Detroit
Rams haven’t shown much yet, but the Lions have been a huge disappointment. St. Loo at home rolls Matt Millen one step closer to the unemployment line.

Cleveland over OAKLAND
Two rotten teams, but at least the Brownies seem to have a direction. Art Shell is completely overmatched as an NFL head coach, and the once vaunted Raider nation has no teeth left. Romeo’s boys will frustrate whomever takes the snaps for the Silver and Black, and Cleveland wins easily.

Jacksonville over WASHINGTON
Tough call taking Jags on the road, but the ‘Skins are still a mess, despite throttling the Texans last week, Jacksonville defense will frustrate Brunell and Portis, and Jaguars win a low scoring affair.

New England over CINCINNATI
Upset special. Despite how ordinary the Pats looked last week against Denver, I just get the feeling that this is when they are at their most dangerous. Nobody is picking them to beat the Bengals in Cincy, but I still think Bellicheck will devise some way to keep it close and squeak out a late win.

CHICAGO over Seattle
Bears at home, on national TV, show America how good they are. ‘Hawks are without Shaun Alexander, and I don’t think they can win here without some kind of rushing attack. Resurgent Chicago offense won’t have an easy time of it either, but they should score enough to take this one.

This one could get ugly. Eagles offense hasn’t struggled yet, and against porous Pack D, they could approach the high 40’s. Defense will have a field day in front of crazed home crowd. Watch for the commentators to praise Brett Favre all night as he is running for his life and throwing 4 picks. Over/under on Theisman mentioning the courage, heart or passion of Favre is 56. I’m betting the over.

Last week: 6-8
Season: 29-17 (63.04%)
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